Monday, 6 March 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (7, 17, 19, 33) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 25 July 2022 — its closest relative in 131 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 5.9% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 March 2023): 7, 17 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (9% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 79 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. No two numbers side by side. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.