Monday, 4 March 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 9, 23, 30) with the draw of 29 August 2015 — its closest relative in 2,878 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 March 2019): 1 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 69th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.