Thursday, 12 November 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 5, 7, 18) with the draw of 28 February 2015 — its closest relative in 2,035 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 November 2015): 4 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 40 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5, 5–6, 6–7. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 4.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.