Wednesday, 18 May 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 17, 21) with the draw of 24 February 2011 — its closest relative in 405 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 May 2011): 17 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 88 — the 71th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.