Friday, 26 November 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 9, 16, 17) with the draw of 17 October 2010 — its closest relative in 232 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 19% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 November 2010): 2 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 45 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 16–17. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.