Saturday, 17 November 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 18, 38, 49) with the draw of 22 December 2011 — its closest relative in 1,087 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 66% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 November 2018): 17, 18 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 153 — the 53th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 45% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.