Monday, 5 March 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (3, 9, 10) with the draw of 31 August 2017 — its closest relative in 830 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 March 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 14–15. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 24% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.