Sunday, 16 May 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 14, 33, 41) with the draw of 20 September 2017 — its closest relative in 4,045 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 55% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 May 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 110 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.