Thursday, 24 December 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (24, 25, 42) with the draw of 25 August 2015 — its closest relative in 2,079 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 December 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 137 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25, 41–42. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.