Sunday, 30 August 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 14, 23) with the draw of 12 July 2015 — its closest relative in 1,963 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 August 2015): 11 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 110 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.