Saturday, 27 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (12, 18, 26, 28) with the draw of 13 November 2012 — its closest relative in 1,718 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 29% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 December 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 115 — the 57th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. No two numbers side by side. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.