Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 6, 23) with the draw of 30 October 2011 — its closest relative in 654 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 January 2012): 6 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 58 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.