Saturday, 21 February 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 3, 25, 44) with the draw of 19 March 2011 — its closest relative in 762 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 89 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 2–3. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

44 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 25% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.