Wednesday, 20 February 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (11, 17, 30, 31) with the draw of 3 October 2011 — its closest relative in 449 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 38% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2013): 17 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 135 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 30–31. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 28% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.