Monday, 13 February 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (14, 32, 45) with the draw of 15 June 2011 — its closest relative in 290 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 February 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 228 — the 100th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 45–46. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.3× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 73% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.