Monday, 6 February 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (21, 40, 43, 45) with the draw of 14 August 2010 — its closest relative in 287 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 27% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 February 2012): 40, 43 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 179 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

45 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 62% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.