Wednesday, 10 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 28, 30) with the draw of 10 November 2010 — its closest relative in 210 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 August 2011): 4 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 102 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 37 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 26% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.