Monday, 2 August 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 6 numbers (12, 26) with the draw of 31 July 2010 — its closest relative in 50 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 July 2010): 12, 26 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 166 — the 71th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 39 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 42% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.