Tuesday, 22 August 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 19, 23, 32) with the draw of 16 February 2020 — its closest relative in 4,872 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 August 2023): 12, 32 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. No two numbers side by side. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.