Friday, 14 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (16, 17, 31, 33) with the draw of 30 January 2023 — its closest relative in 4,833 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 July 2023): 31, 36 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 133 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.