Saturday, 24 December 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 16, 20, 28) with the draw of 24 January 2013 — its closest relative in 4,631 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 December 2022): 28 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 77 — the 24th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. No two numbers side by side. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.