Friday, 19 August 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (7, 16, 21, 29) with the draw of 8 March 2016 — its closest relative in 4,504 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 August 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 81 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.