Sunday, 4 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 26, 27, 32) with the draw of 20 March 2021 — its closest relative in 4,002 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 123 — the 91th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.