Thursday, 18 February 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 9, 22, 30) with the draw of 18 September 2019 — its closest relative in 3,957 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 February 2021): 30 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 98 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.