Sunday, 1 November 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (19, 24, 28, 34) with the draw of 16 May 2014 — its closest relative in 3,848 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 October 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 73th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. No two numbers side by side. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.