Sunday, 12 July 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 26, 31, 32) with the draw of 7 August 2015 — its closest relative in 3,736 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 79% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 July 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 112 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.