Wednesday, 8 July 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 5, 16, 19) with the draw of 19 July 2017 — its closest relative in 3,732 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 79% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 July 2020): 16 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 80 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.