Monday, 17 February 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 11, 23, 25) with the draw of 30 August 2014 — its closest relative in 3,590 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 77% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 February 2020): 23 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 40th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24, 24–25. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.