Saturday, 11 January 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 32, 33) with the draw of 19 November 2019 — its closest relative in 3,553 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 January 2020): 21 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 128 — the 94th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.