Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 11, 12, 16) with the draw of 3 October 2012 — its closest relative in 1,105 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 37% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 April 2013): 24 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 64 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.