Wednesday, 11 October 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 15, 17, 38) with the draw of 22 July 2012 — its closest relative in 4,927 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 77% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 October 2023): 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.