Wednesday, 6 July 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 11, 12, 22) with the draw of 2 November 2016 — its closest relative in 4,465 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 73% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 July 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 48 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 11–12. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.