Monday, 14 March 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 13, 14) with the draw of 4 February 2011 — its closest relative in 341 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 March 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 65 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 13–14. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.