Sunday, 26 November 2023

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 22 September 2021. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 November 2023): 1, 8, 8, 8 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 31 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. No two numbers side by side. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 2 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.