Tuesday, 26 September 2023

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 9 June 2023. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 September 2023): 4, 5, 8 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 29 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 4–5, 8–9. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 3 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.