Sunday, 24 May 2020

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 25 November 2019. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 May 2020): 1, 1, 1 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 12 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.