Wednesday, 11 May 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 5 numbers (1, 3, 3, 4, 4) with the draw of 30 October 2015 — its closest relative in 871 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 May 2016): 1, 3, 3 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 15 — the 5th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 2 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.