Wednesday, 3 September 2014

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 21 July 2014. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 September 2014): 3, 5 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 14 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 4–5. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.