Sunday, 7 October 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 7, 8) with the draw of 23 September 2012 — its closest relative in 20 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 October 2012): 3, 8 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 19 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 0–1, 7–8. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 3 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.