Monday, 1 October 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 7, 8, 8) with the draw of 23 September 2012 — its closest relative in 14 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 78% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 September 2012): 2 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 30 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.