Saturday, 29 October 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (11, 14, 21, 46) with the draw of 4 April 2022 — its closest relative in 2,007 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 October 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 25% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.