Saturday, 10 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (8, 9, 13, 33, 46) with the draw of 17 May 2010 — its closest relative in 1,764 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 3.2% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 April 2021): 17 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 126 — the 23th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 45% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.