Wednesday, 13 March 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 23, 35, 40) with the draw of 11 April 2012 — its closest relative in 500 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 39% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 March 2013): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.