Monday, 17 September 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (26, 39, 42) with the draw of 2 June 2012 — its closest relative in 424 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 September 2012): 26, 42 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 188 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 42–43. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 65% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.