Saturday, 4 June 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (3, 27, 46) with the draw of 17 November 2010 — its closest relative in 65 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 June 2011): 55 carried over. Chance says 49% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 158 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 180. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 66% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.