Saturday, 12 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (16, 21, 41) with the draw of 11 December 2010 — its closest relative in 33 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 30% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 February 2011): 36 carried over. Chance says 49% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 166 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 180. No two numbers side by side. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 76% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.