Thursday, 18 April 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 20, 28, 30) with the draw of 31 December 2022 — its closest relative in 4,795 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 April 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 103 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. No two numbers side by side. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.