Sunday, 17 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 14, 15, 31) with the draw of 28 March 2022 — its closest relative in 4,672 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 82% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 December 2023): 13 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14, 14–15. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.