Sunday, 30 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 9, 22) with the draw of 7 September 2022 — its closest relative in 4,532 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 July 2023): 4 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 56 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.