Friday, 8 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 15, 19, 28) with the draw of 29 September 2021 — its closest relative in 3,872 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 76% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 33th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. No two numbers side by side. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.